The development tendency and effete factors of grain production in Hunan Province

According to the statistical data, the dcvelopment tendency of the grain sown area and grain production in Hunan Province during the last more than 50 years are discussed in the paper.On the base of the analysis, we have further studied the factors affecting the grain output of Hunan Province by means of the gray relevance analysis.The result show:Per unit area grain yield is the most important factor,and the status is rising;The effective irrigated area and the grain sown area are very important factors,which is more and more important;The function of natural effect factors are lowed;The total power of agricultural machinery and consumption of agricultural chemical fertilizer become more and more important to grain output, however the influence of the electricity consumed in rural and general purchasing price index of grain is slight.According to the model of regression analysis,the grain output in 2010 is estimated in Hunan Province and the yield of grain will be3023.48×104t.The paper provides as cientific basis for sustainable grain production development in Hunan Province.