Factor Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions Change in China

With the rapid development of Chinese economy,sharpe increase of energy consumption and coal-dominant energy structure will not be changed in a short term,and the aggregate carbon emissions caused by primary energy consumption have been increasing consistently in China.Based on Generalized Fisher Index Approach(GFI),a decomposition model of carbon emissions per capita in China is established.The model is adopted to analyze the influence of energy structure,energy efficiency and economic development on carbon emissions per head from 2000 to 2008 in China.The results show that the contribution rate of carbon emissions per capita pushed by economic development presents an exponential growth.However,the contribution rate of carbon emissions per capita inhibited by energy efficiency appears as an inverted U.The inhibiting effect indicates a strengthening tendency but inhibition of energy structure is still weak.The inhibition caused by energy efficiency and energy structure is difficult to offset the growth of carbon emissions per capita in China driven by economic development,which is different from previous findings.In order to find out the regularity of various factors that impact carbon emissions in China,this paper simulates the features of instantaneous rate of change for various factors for the first time and this further reflects the dynamic evolution of various factors.