Quantitative Risk Analysis of Oil and Gas Long-distance Pipeline

Pipeline risk assessment generally adopts the qualitative method of Kent Grading. To make the assessment more scientific, a new method, QRA (quantitative risk analysis), is firstly presented, which conducts pipeline failure probability analysis and failure consequence analysis based on history database of pipeline failure and matured mathematical models. Then, this method is applied to assess certain gas-transportation pipeline system; the absolute risk and individual risk in the pipeline section with dense population are obtained, and risk is predicted. The results show that QRA is more objective and scientific, and can provide quantitative results as well, which is very useful to the allocation of inspection and maintenance resource.