Spatial-temporal Variation of Heat Resources in Winter of Xinjiang near 50 years

Using the daily mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature data from 101 meteorological stations during 1961 to 2010 in Xinjiang, were analyzed the changing trend and abruptly changing characteristic of heat element in winter for the January mean temperature, yearly extreme minimum temperature, accumulated negative temperature and the day numbers in winter by using the linear tendency method and Mann-Kendall method, and by using the mixed model, have finished the spacial distribution simulation for the average value in multi-years of each heat element in winter and the variation before and after abrupt change based on the digit elevation model(DEM) on the platform of the ArcGIS. The results showed that: (1) January mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature in Xinjiang were showed the characteristic of higher in southern Xinjiang, lower in northern Xinjiang; Higher in plain and valley, and lower in mountain areas; The accumulated negative temperature and the day numbers in winter were showed the distribution style as less in southern Xinjiang, more in northern Xinjiang; And less in plain and valley, more in mountain areas. (2) Under the background of global warming, the heat resource in winter of Xinjiang was showed a significant increasing trend during 1961 to 2010, also January mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature occurred abruptly increase in 1979 and 1980 respectively, but the accumulated negative temperature and the day numbers in winter were abruptly decreased in 1986 and 1998 respectively. Before and after the abruptly change year, the spatial distribution of rise range for January mean temperature and annual extreme minimum temperature totally assumed the pattern as increase from southeast to northwest, the spatial distribution of reduced range for accumulated negative temperature assumed the characteristic as rise from south to north, and the spatial distribution of reduced range for the day numbers in winter assumed the pattern as more in southern Xinjiang, less in northern Xinjiang, plains, and more in plains and basins area, less in Tianshan Mountain and Altai Mountains areas.