Risk analysis of researvoir operation with considering flood forecast error

Dynamic flood control operation is one of important ways of reservoir operation and management which can improve reservoir benefit. All the possible results of operation are analyzed with dynamic flood control levels and define the operation risk. The runoff random simulation method is established with considering the flood forecasting error. The method is appled for reservoir of Daqinghe basin. Results show that the flood forecasting error affects the operation risk of dynamic flood control to some extent and the extent depends on the flood forecasting precision. In Daqinghe basin,the extent is very limited. If all flood control levels of reservoirs in Daqinghe basin are heightened by 1 meter,flood control pressure of Baiyangdian will be great.