The verification of prospective prediction for the Lushan M_s 7.0 earthquake on20 April 2013 and an analysis on future earthquake situation

Aiming at whether the strong or large earthquake can be predicted and how to predict,the brittle failure theory of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and associated prediction method were recently developed by us.Based on this new method,the prediction results,including the magnitude,place,critical strain,and hypocentral depth of the oncoming strong earthquake for Wenchuan seismic zone are obtained and have been published in advance.In comparison with the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake in Sichuan on 20 April2013,it is shown that the Lushan Ms 7.0 earthquake has been predicted successfully according to the theory and method developed by us.Moreover,it was found that the Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake is an aftershock of Wenchuan earthquake.Thus,we think the new earthquake prediction theory has wide applicability for the large earthquake including some large aftershock.Finally,the earthquake situation in future is also analyzed for the Wenchuan seismic zone.