Water Resources Carrying Capacity along the Yellow River of Gansu Province

The region along the Yellow River in Gansu Province has an important strategic position in Gansu Province as well as Northwest China.Through modeling water resources carrying capacity(WRCC),the possible scenarios are simulated when several variables change under different parameter combinations.The results show that 4 variables cropland irrigation,water-saving technology,the scale of non-agricultural industries and ecological water affect the WRCC greatly;each scenario has its own advantages and disadvantages among four typical scenarios discussed,the most favorable option is the coordinated development scenario.In this scenario,the goal of living a well-to-do life may be attained in the region in 2020,but there are huge differences in the region.4 living standards(a life with adequate food and clothing,a relatively rich life,a well-to-do life and a universal well-to-do life) still exist.Water shortage will appear in 2021 and impact the future development.Therefore,we need to keep a balance between the urban development and rural development;plan actively the construction of Western Route Project for Transferring Water from Southern to Northern China besides speeding up the construction of Tao River Diversion Project.