Study on the dynamic relationship between the input and output of agricultural research and agricultural economic growth

Agricultural research is a determinant factor of agricultural modernization. Applying the Ganger causality test,impulse response function, and variance decomposition analysis, this study estimates the causal relationship and inter-impulse between the input and output of agricultural research and agricultural economic growth from 1993 to 2011 and discusses the cause of low contribution of agricultural research to agricultural economy and the improvement measures. Results show that agricultural research is the cause of agricultural economic growth and agricultural research has a long-term positive effect on agricultural economic growth. This study does not find any causal relationship between agricultural research appropriations and research outputs. The contribution of research outputs to agricultural economic growth begins in the second year and reaches the highest level in the third or fourth year. The relative variance contribution of appropriation to agricultural economic growth is about 50% and the relative variance contribution of agricultural research outputs to agricultural economic growth is about 46%. To improve the contribution of agricultural research to agricultural economic growth, it is suggested to establish a more stable financial allocation mechanism,ensuring a steady growth of agricultural research appropriations, to guide the agricultural research to link the demand of agriculture organically, and to promote the transformation of agricultural research achievements and the adoption of agricultural technology.