A Model System for Predicting Urban Travel Demand Based on Disaggregate Behavioral Model -Non-worker Travel Demand Models-

Since middle 1970's many studies have been carried out on disaggregate travel demand models. However, applications of those models to transportation plannings are limited; they are usually applied to local and short-term transportation plannings, or they are used in the frames of traditional 4-step travel demand forecasting models by replacing some of those steps. That is, there have been few attempts to develop and apply disaggregate travel demand model systems for predicting travel demand in metropolitan areas.The model developed in this study incorporates trip frequency, destination and mode choice for non-woker travel by using the conception of travel tours into utility-maximizing frame. The model incorporates the concept that decisions of trips in a travel tour depend on decisions of trips conducted theretofore and decisions of trips planned thereafter, as well as on current trip conditions.Empirical examinations for Nagoya metropolitan area show the feasibility of the model.