Time Series Analysis Model for Production and Utilization of Gas (A Case Study of Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation “Nnpc”)

Time series analysis and forecasting has become a major tool in different applications for the private sector.Among the most effective approaches for analyzing time series data is the model introduced by Box and Jenkins, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average).In this study we used Box-Jenkins methodology to build ARIMA model for annual production and utilization of gas from Nigeria National Petroleum Company (N.N. P. C.) for the period from 1970-2004.After the model specification; the best model for production was ARIMA (1, 1, 1) and for utilization was ARIMA (0, 1, 1).These models were used to forecasting the production and utilization of gas for the upcoming 4 years to help decision makers establish priorities in terms of gas demand management.An intervention time series analysis could be used to forecast the peak values of production and utilization data.