Study of the Total Energy Consumption Prediction and Industrial Energy Consumption Factors Decomposition in Henan Province

In recent years, energy consumption in Henan Province has grown rapidly, with the vast majority of industrial energy consumption. A thorough evaluation of predicting total energy consumption and identi- fying factors affecting energy consumption, to provide a basis for energy policy-decision, is important for Henan Province to complete the 12th Five-Year energy-saving target. Adjusting the economic and industrial structure, to achieve sustainable economic development is important. The paper uses Autoregressive Inte- grated Moving Average (ARIMA) model to predict the total energy consumption during the 12th Five-Year and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) method to decomposition the factors affecting energy con- sumption during 2005-2011, in Henan Province. The results show that, the ARIMA model predicting energy consumption is good and the model can be used as energy forecasting tools in Henan Province. During the 12th Five-Year period, the total energy consumption in Henan Province will continue to grow and maintain a high growth rate. Between 2005 to 2011, energy-saving in Henan is relied on enhanced energy efficiency, especially with high energy consuming industries, with the inferior contribution from structural adjustment. Nonetheless, economic restructuring and energy saving remain the main task of the future economic development in Henan Province.