[Guidelines for an effective population policy in Peru: realistic population projections for the year 2000].

This work analyzes the most recent goals of Peru's National Population Council using the TABRAP model and population projections, and concludes that the goal of reducing the total fertility rate by the year 2000 is unattainable. The paper begins with a brief discussion of Peru's recent demographic history and population policies and programs, which have received only lukewarm political support. The work is presented in 4 sections. 1) The fertility levels proposed by the official policy are used to obtain a population projection and the resulting growth rates are used to derive the corresponding crude birth rates, which are then evaluated in terms of the contraceptive prevalence required to achieve them. The feasibility of achieving this prevalence rate is assessed. 2) Trends in contraceptive usage are projected to determine the probable distribution of users of each method in the near future, assuming no significant changes in the family planning (FP) program. The resulting fertility rate is the basis for another projection, which establishes the upper limit for the population size and rate of growth in the year 2000. 3) The lower limit is projected assuming a fertility decline to replacement level sometime in the next century, and the FP effort needed to achieve the maximum realistic reduction in fertility is estimated. 4) Alternative projections between the 2 extremes are assessed. The alternatives assume that half of users of traditional methods switch to modern methods between 1990-2000, that the annual number of new acceptors increases, and that a combination of greater acceptance and switching occurs. The models used were the FIV-FIV for population projection and the TABRAP for evaluating the impact of contraceptive usage on fertility rates, both developed by the Population Council in New York. The fertility reduction goal of the National Population Council for 2000 was found to be unrealistic because of the very high rate of contraceptive prevalence it would require: 79.1% among married women aged 15-44. The upper of lower limits established by the study for population growth through the end of the century present alternatives that are compatible with a realistic and achievable level of contraceptive usage. According to the upper limit projection, the total population in 2000 would be 28,513,400 and the contraceptive prevalence rate would be 60.9%. The total fertility rates would be 4.30 for 1990-95 and 3.74 for 1995-2000. According to the lower limit projection, the total population would be 27,560.800 in 2000, with a growth rate of around 2% and a total fertility rate of 3.25 for 1995-2000 and a contraceptive prevalence rate of 74.4%.