[Retrospect of population projections of Japan].

Population projections are often influenced by the socioeconomic background and vital statistics of the period. It is also influenced by the method of handling demographic data. Development of new and improved methodology in recent years resulted in more sophisticated and precise population projections. Between 1926 and 1941 some population projections were based on natural increase rate of total population, while others were based on age/sex composition of population and birth/death rates. Between 1947 and 1949 low birth/death rates were projected for the future but not as low as the actual rate turned out to be in 1955. Between 1950 and 1957 the Institute of Population Problems attempted 6 population projections, and the low total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.6 for 1960-1965 was predicted. The actual TFR, after hitting the lowest point of 1.96 in 1961, began to show a slight recovery. Reflecting the trend, and the period characterized by remarkable economic growth accompanied by increased demand of labor and rural-urban migration, population projections made in 1960, 1964, and 1969 were those of enlarged reproduction: TFR 1.95-1.60, 1.99-1.69, and 2.44-2.03. Influenced to some extent by drastic decline in birthrates after 1974, population projections made in 1976 with more sophisticated methods were 2.15, 2.10, 2.05, or 1.90 constant.