Analysis on the theory of blow-up and verification on numerical prediction of heavy rain in Sichuan basin.

By dint of V-3θ diagram from the Blown-up theory,one continuous heavy rain process in western Sichuan basin from July 14 to 17,2009 is analyzed in this paper.Situation field and precipitation of ECWMF and T213 are verified and discussed.Results show that V-3θ diagram can describe the heavy rain process accurately.Combining with additional conventional weather charts,experience and numerical forecast products,the heavy rain falling area is determined.The forecast accuracy of situation field of ECWMF is significantly higher than that of T213 and the forecast accuracy of T213 for heavy rain forecast is relatively low.