A Manual Storm Surge Forecasting Scheme

A simplified manual scheme for operational prediction of tropical cyclone storm surges is described. The scheme utilises only the simplest quantitative parameters of the landfalling cyclone to provide an estimate of the along-coast profile of increased water level at or near the time of landfall. It is based on a condensation and adaption of a series of numerical computations by C. P. Jelesnianski. For operational use by the Commonwealth Bureau of Meteorology's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres, the modified manual method has the advantages of simplicity and relative insensitivity to uncertainties in the meteorological input.