Tropical Cyclone Strike Probability Forecasting.
Jerry D. Jarrell
Abstract
Jerry D. Jarrell
Abstract
A system to infer the probability of a tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The results of a sequence of tests are presented, which indicate the system reasonably specifies the desired probability. Some envisioned operational applications of tropical cyclone strike probability information are described; some are illustrated. (Author)
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A system to infer the probability of a tropical cyclone's striking within an area, given a tropical cyclone forecast, is described. The results of a sequence of tests are presented, which indicate the system reasonably specifies the desired probability. Some envisioned operational applications of tropical cyclone strike probability information are described; some are illustrated. (Author)
Key concepts: Tropical cyclone, Tropical cyclone forecast model, Meteorology, Climatology, Environmental science, Geography, Geology