Spatial pattern and mechanism of population growth in metropolitan Beijing

The population density pattern is a crucial economic and social feature of an urban area, and is an important basis for policy making. The study of urban population densities is an old and continuing preoccupation of urban geographers and urban economists. With the aids of the expansion methods of model construction, we formulate an econometric model to measure the development of population change in metropolitan Beijing by the introduction of time variable, and the mechanism is also discussed. Beijing, one of the most attractive cities in China,has aroused a strong attraction on labor and capital market. So, concentration is the main features of population growth from 2000 to 2010 in metropolitan Beijing. The new trend is inconsistent with the suburbanization trends which are generally accepted from 1982-2000. Population is concentrated from inner suburbs to the new town in outer suburbs, while population outflows from the outskirts of the peripheral area. The regional difference of population density distribution is increasing. The estimation results indicate the 'inverted-U' pattern of population growth from urban core to urban fringe. In the core urban area, the growth rate is the lowest,and decentralization and equalization are the main character of population growth due to the protection of Beijing old city and urban function dissemination. The greatest population growth rate is found to have occurred in the outer suburbs since 2005, and it has risen slightly in inner suburbs. So, the outer suburbs have become the main carrying space of population growth instead of the inner suburbs, while the population growth rate in peripheral outer suburbs declines. In comparison of 1984-2005 with 1984-2010, the population growth pace of the core urban area is gradually slowing down; the 'inverted-U' pattern has become a linear increasing pattern from urban core to urban fringe. Besides the urban conservation and function dissemination, this paper also discusses the factors influencing population growth, including the growth of capital economy, the rapid construction of subways, protection of mountain eco-environmental. In the end, it is recommended that to balance housing and employment, service facilities and employment opportunities in the outer suburbs should be increased, and the mixed land use should be encouraged in order to enhance population attractiveness.