On the Microfoundations of Economic Voting: An Experimental Study

Correspondence between economic conditions and incumbent electoral success is observed with such regularity that the theory of economic voting has achieved near axiomatic status. Yet the microfoundations of economic voting are not entirely clear. Quattrone and Tversky (1988) posit that prospect theory can explain economic-political correspondences - suggesting that under perceived economic losses, voters are more willing to vote for a risky (i.e. less well known) challenger. This paper tests whether exogenously altered economic perceptions lead to changes in political preferences on average. While manipulation checks show that stimuli did alter economic outlook, this change did not correspond to movement in vote intentions, a result not predicted by prospect theory. Findings may imply the importance of politicization of economic conditions.