Catchment Prediction in Australia: A New Purpose and Challenges Ahead

The science of catchment prediction is assuming increasing importance in Australian land and water management circles. As environmental problems worsen and competition for water resources increases, scientists are being compelled to predict how catchments will respond to quite varied management interventions and climate scenarios. Furthermore, the integrated catchment management philosophy compels us all to view catchments holistically, as systems required to deliver a range of environmental, industrial, agricultural and social services. Competing demands for these services require analytical tools for making management tradeoff assessments, founded on robust and integrated models of catchment function. As public investment in catchment management increases and the social and economic impacts of land and water resource management policies become more pervasive, it is incumbent upon the scientific and environmental management community to 'get it right'. In this paper, the authors articulate a new purpose for catchment prediction in Australia and argue that a revolution is required in the way we develop, distribute and apply catchment models. We describe how the CRC for Catchment Hydrology is taking a lead in this area through its Catchment Modelling Toolkit initiative.