Scenario Planning as a Tool for Regional Water Management Irrigation Futures of the Goulburn Broken Catchment

Water availability and water management make a major contribution to the economic activity and well-being of regional communities. However, irrigated agriculture is increasingly subject to large and often uncontrolled forces such as climate change, market shifts and changes in Government policy. These external forces exert a direct influence on water storage requirements and delivery systems, both of which are designed for a long service life and involve significant capital and operating costs. Given the uncertainty in these external forces, how do agencies responsible for regional water planning and management incorporate system complexity and uncertainty in their forward planning? To address these challenges, the Irrigation Futures project developed a methodology for using scenario planning coupled with extensive stakeholder engagement to develop a vision and strategies for irrigated agriculture in the Goulburn Broken catchment over the next 30 years. This paper outlines project ai ms, engagement processes and strategies developed by irrigation water supply, catchment management and land use planning agencies. It demonstrates the significant gains which can be achieved when agencies effectively engage their stakeholder community in the planning process. It highlights the need to build flexibility and adaptability into management structures and processes to manage future uncertainty. It outlines a number of tools developed to assist this process.