THE WASHINGTON STATE TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING DECISION PROCESS: FROM VISION TO PRODUCTS

There are a number of elements that can contribute to the successful implementation of a vision. The application of travel demand forecasting, a fundamental planning tool, is no exception. The Washington State Department of Transportation's (WSDOT's) current vision is to develop a coordinated travel forecasting process where local, regional and state roles are played out in a collaborative manner to produce output necessary to answer the policy questions derived through the planning process. In order to ensure that this vision is clear, it is critical to have a clearly stated outcome to achieve. Currently at the WSDOT there is one primary outcome to achieve: Enhanced data and analysis assisted decision making (opposite of so called data-free analysis). In order to continue to move in the right direction to achieve this outcome, WSDOT has identified four primary objectives necessary for the state to fulfill its role in the travel forecasting process: (1) Ensure that all travel forecasting efforts within Washington State are coordinated and follow a set of agreed upon procedures (Travel Demand Forecasting Framework); (2) Provide each of the 8 Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) regions of the state, existing and forecasted interregional travel; (3) Determine how much travel occurs as statewide throughput (e.g., between Canada, Oregon, Idaho and Washington Ports); and (4) Test effectiveness of new corridors for passenger and freight statewide travel. To achieve these four objectives two products need to be created: (1) a best practices' procedures manual, used statewide at the local, regional and state level, for the application of travel demand forecasting; and (2) a statewide travel demand forecasting model. It is very important to go slow to go fast, or in other words, promising too much too soon can jeopardize the entire process. Being clear about the objectives and making steady progress towards those objectives with incremental deliverables will give the greatest likelihood for success.