UPGRADING TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING CAPABILITIES

With the passage of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 and the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990, there is increased concern about the limitations of travel forecasting procedures to meet the requirement of these acts. Current travel forecasting models, in use for almost 30 years, were originally developed for long range regional scale planning and forecasting, especially for highways. This paper examines: (1) the requirements of a long-term development program to upgrade travel demand forecasting capabilities in transportation agencies; (2) the new Travel Model Improvement Program, which has just completed its first year; and (3) lessons learned from past experiences using travel forecasting procedures that should be applied in the development of a new generation of procedures.