Trends in residual fuel oil demand and conversion capacities in Western Europe - impact on sulphur emissions

The report examines trends in the Western European oil refining industry, over the period 1980-90, in terms of existing and planned capacity for the conversion (upgrading) of the heavy portion of the crude. The purpose is to assess if there will be a need for desulphurization of residual fuel oil to meet the anticipated market demand, bearing in mind possible future legislative and technical requirements governing sulphur contents. The demand forecast developed shows that, while overall European energy usage will increase, there will be a decrease in inland heavy fuel oil demand and, consequently, a halving of sulphur emissions resulting from fuel oil combustion. The study indicates that the oil refining industry will be able to accomodate these trends using available crude oil supplies and existing or planned conversion capacity. It concludes that there is neither incentive nor requirement to install facilities for direct desulphurization of residues as an independent process in the foreseeable future.