Market forces will make European residual oil desulfurization investment improbable

This article points out that large-scale investment in residual desulfurizaton (RDS) in European refineries is highly improbable because of shrinking fuel oil demand, declining refinery crude oil runs, reduced sulfur emissions from inland fuel oil, and refinery intakes will contain higher proportions of low-sulfur crude. Oil demand has dropped significantly between 1980 and 1983, and no further growth in demand is predicted through the year 2000. Fuel oil demand is predicted to be no more than 50% of the 1980 level. The author believes that refinery crude oil runs will continue to decline because of increased product and refinery blendstock imports. Although the quantity of low sulfur crude oil will not increase, there should be sufficient conversion capacity in refineries to meet the lighter cut of the barrel demand. Sulfur emissions from inland fuel oil are expected to be 57-68% of 1980 sulfur emissions solely as a result of market forces.