Economic Consequences of Recycling for the Canadian Newsprint Industry

The probable future structure of the Canadian newsprint industry is outlined and the likely economic consequences to Canadian newsprint producers of the increased consumption of newsprint made within the United States from recycled fiber is demonstrated. The overmature nature of the Canadian newsprint industry is shown. Old mills and plant capital, stabilized markets, asset fixity, and real cost increases are given as major short-run structural weaknesses, especially for eastern Canadian mills, which make the industry susceptible to marginal market shifts such as competition from recycled newsprint paper.Densely populated areas adjacent to eastern Canada are shown to attract not only the output from Ontario, Quebec, and the Maritimes but also the secondary fiber newsprint mills. Such an intrusion in the market, while marginal in effect, only magnifies the structural weaknesses of a mature industry.Two factors much more critical to the structure of the Canadian newsprint industry appear to be the probable movement up and to the right along the industry's long-run cost curve (real cost increases) and mill capacity increases within the United States. Changes in these two factors should overshadow the influence of recycling at least through 1985.