Effects of temperature and precipitation on snowpack variability in the Central Rocky Mountains as a function of elevation

Abstract We employ a regression‐based methodology to study the impact of temperature and precipitation on snowpack variability as a function of elevation in the Central Rocky Mountains. Because of the broad horizontal coverage and thermal heterogeneity of the measurement sites employed, we introduce an elevation correction based on the sites' climatological temperature. For the elevation range investigated (1295–2256 m), and assuming an average atmospheric lapse rate of −6.5°C/km, we find a mostly linear relationship between effective elevation and correlation of temperature or precipitation with snow water equivalent and snowpack duration. We estimate a threshold elevation, 1560 ± 120 m, below (above) which temperature (precipitation) is the main driver of the snowpack. This threshold elevation is robust under a range of assumed atmospheric lapse rates. Locations below this elevation are likely to be affected by projected rising temperatures, with important effects on ecosystems and economic activities dependent on snow.