1977Human Factors The Journal of the Human Factors and Ergonomics SocietyRequires access

Correlation of General Aviation Accidents with the Biorhythm Theory

John H. Wolcott, R. R. McMeekin, Robert E. Burgin, Robert E. Yanowitch

Open publisher page 23 citations

Abstract

Biorhythms were calculated for over 4,000 pilots involved in general aviation accidents in 1972. Data were obtained from the files of the National Transportation Safety Board. Exact date and time of accident were used, and 1200 hours (noon) was used as the average time of birth. Data were analyzed for correlation of aircraft-accident occurrence with both biorhythmically critical days and with individual and multiple low or negative phases of cycle. Data were calculated by both a 24- and 48-hour critical period and by all three cycles (physical, emotional, and intellectual) or only the physical and emotional cycles. Data did not deviate significantly from the random model, when analyzed by chi-square at the p = 0.1 level. No correlation was found between accident occurrence and biorhythmic criticality or low phase of cycle. This was true both for the cases in which the primary cause of the accident was attributed to pilot involvement and for those in which it was not.

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Biorhythms were calculated for over 4,000 pilots involved in general aviation accidents in 1972. Data were obtained from the files of the National Transportation Safety Board. Exact date and time of accident were used, and 1200 hours (noon) was used as the average time of birth. Data were analyzed for correlation of aircraft-accident occurrence with both biorhythmically critical days and with individual and multiple low or negative phases of cycle. Data were calculated by both a 24- and 48-hour critical period and by all three cycles (physical, emotional, and intellectual) or only the physical and emotional cycles. Data did not deviate significantly from the random model, when analyzed by chi-square at the p = 0.1 level. No correlation was found between accident occurrence and biorhythmic criticality or low phase of cycle. This was true both for the cases in which the primary cause of the accident was attributed to pilot involvement and for those in which it was not.

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Available abstract

Biorhythms were calculated for over 4,000 pilots involved in general aviation accidents in 1972. Data were obtained from the files of the National Transportation Safety Board. Exact date and time of accident were used, and 1200 hours (noon) was used as the average time of birth. Data were analyzed for correlation of aircraft-accident occurrence with both biorhythmically critical days and with individual and multiple low or negative phases of cycle. Data were calculated by both a 24- and 48-hour critical period and by all three cycles (physical, emotional, and intellectual) or only the physical and emotional cycles. Data did not deviate significantly from the random model, when analyzed by chi-square at the p = 0.1 level. No correlation was found between accident occurrence and biorhythmic criticality or low phase of cycle. This was true both for the cases in which the primary cause of the accident was attributed to pilot involvement and for those in which it was not.

Key concepts: Aviation accident, General aviation, Correlation, Aviation, Statistics, Accident (philosophy), Aeronautics, Criticality

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