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2013•Demographic ResearchOpen access

Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility

Stuart Gietel‐Basten, Wolfgang Lutz, Sergei Scherbov

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Abstract

Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion,

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Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion,

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Available abstract

Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion,

Key concepts: Fertility, Population, Total fertility rate, Range (aeronautics), Geography, Sub-replacement fertility, Population momentum, Central asia

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