Disaggregate Attraction-End Choice Modeling: Formulation and Empirical Analysis

For travel demand models to provide good forecasts, they must be causal; that is, the models should represent the travel decisions made by individuals (and households) and should incorporate important demographic and policy-sensitive explanatory variables. This recognition has led to a shift from the aggregate modeling paradigm to the disaggregate modeling paradigm, evident in the widespread use of disaggregate trip production and mode choice models in practice. However, this shift toward disaggregate procedures has not yet influenced the fundamental specification of trip attraction and distribution models employed in practice. Developed and estimated were disaggregate attraction-end choice models that will facilitate the replacement of the aggregate trip attraction and distribution models currently in use. The proposed disaggregate attraction-end choice model is compared with the disaggregate equivalent of the gravity model.