System Dynamics Model of Urban Car Ownership —A Case Study of Guangzhou

With the high-speed growth of urban car ownership, it is important to study the growth limit of urban automobiles and the transport policies of controlling growth rate of urban cars. The purpose of the paper is to predict the growth trends of urban car ownership system and analyze the impacts on urban car ownership under different transport policies. The growth of urban car ownership will be infected by many factors, but traditional transportation modeling approaches are unsuitable for simulating such a complex model. So the paper considers many influencing factors to build the urban car ownership system by system dynamics, which is usually used to analyze complex issues. The research shows that any single traffic policy has its limitations, while, by implementing comprehensive traffic policy, urban car ownership can be properly controlled and research the better goal.