On Population Growth and Technological Change: Selectivity Bias in Historical Analysis

This paper investigates the relationship between population growth and technological change. After an historical overview of the evolution of world population, alternative models of population growth are examined. They include a Malthusian model, a model of endogenous technological change, and a model of population growth that allows for switching regimes between Malthusian resource limitation and endogenous technological change. The regime‐switching model stresses the potential for a biased interpretation of historical data. While there is strong empirical evidence supporting endogenous technical change, it is argued that the Malthusian scenario should not be overlooked even if the odds of facing it are low.