The Neglected Role of the Status Quo in Models of Issue Voting

We offer a spatial model of voter choice based on the directionality and magnitude of expected shifts from the status quo. In this model citizens do not look merely at the positions (platforms) of the parties/candidates, but also at how successful potential officeholders are likely to be in implementing changes from the present status quo in the direction they intend. We argue that our model is more faithful in spirit to Downs's (1957) work than the standard operationalization and, more importantly, that it enables us to account for long-run dynamics of electoral politics in which, because of shifts in the location of the status quo, voter choices may change even though party locations and voter ideal points remain unchanged. Moreover, it leads to ideas for improving the operationalization of issue-voting models.