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China's fertility drop lowers world growth rate.

C Haub

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Abstract

China practices a stringent and compulsory program of family planning and population control. This approach has, however, served to increase the number of domestic IUD insertions and sterilizations. Contraceptive prevalence has reached 83% and total fertility (TFR) is estimated to be 1.9. This Chinese accomplishment has helped reduce TFR for all East Asia to 1.8, which is lower than that for northern Europe, and bring the world population growth rate down from the 1992 level of 1.68% to 1.63%. This latter rate is reported in the 1993 Population Reference Bureau's (PRB) World Population Data Sheet and is the lowest world population growth rate since PRB's first annual edition in 1962. Despite these reductions, world population still grows by 90 million annually. No one can say for sure whether or not observed fertility decline in China is permanent. China's birth rate rose twice in the 1980s and it could certainly rebound once again. A popular backlash to population policy or a relaxing of policy due to international pressure to reduce the level of compulsion in the program are 2 factors which might increase overall fertility and population growth. Fertility is also declining in subSaharan Africa, but not universally. Birth rates are rapidly declining in eastern Europe and the former USSR as economic conditions and outlooks pale. The populations of Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and possible Russia are even declining, while only mixed data are available from Yugoslavia. New statistical publications reflect changing borders. Finally, while Slovakia is the only country added to this year's sheet, Eritrea and the Channel Islands will likely be included in next year's.

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What this paper is about

China practices a stringent and compulsory program of family planning and population control. This approach has, however, served to increase the number of domestic IUD insertions and sterilizations. Contraceptive prevalence has reached 83% and total fertility (TFR) is estimated to be 1.9. This Chinese accomplishment has helped reduce TFR for all East Asia to 1.8, which is lower than that for northern Europe, and bring the world population growth rate down from the 1992 level of 1.68% to 1.63%. This latter rate is reported in the 1993 Population Reference Bureau's (PRB) World Population Data Sheet and is the lowest world population growth rate since PRB's first annual edition in 1962. Despite these reductions, world population still grows by 90 million annually. No one can say for sure whether or not observed fertility decline in China is permanent. China's birth rate rose twice in the 1980s and it could certainly rebound once again. A popular backlash to population policy or a relaxing of policy due to international pressure to reduce the level of compulsion in the program are 2 factors which might increase overall fertility and population growth. Fertility is also declining in subSaharan Africa, but not universally. Birth rates are rapidly declining in eastern Europe and the former USSR as economic conditions and outlooks pale. The populations of Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and possible Russia are even declining, while only mixed data are available from Yugoslavia. New statistical publications reflect changing borders. Finally, while Slovakia is the only country added to this year's sheet, Eritrea and the Channel Islands will likely be included in next year's.

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Available abstract

China practices a stringent and compulsory program of family planning and population control. This approach has, however, served to increase the number of domestic IUD insertions and sterilizations. Contraceptive prevalence has reached 83% and total fertility (TFR) is estimated to be 1.9. This Chinese accomplishment has helped reduce TFR for all East Asia to 1.8, which is lower than that for northern Europe, and bring the world population growth rate down from the 1992 level of 1.68% to 1.63%. This latter rate is reported in the 1993 Population Reference Bureau's (PRB) World Population Data Sheet and is the lowest world population growth rate since PRB's first annual edition in 1962. Despite these reductions, world population still grows by 90 million annually. No one can say for sure whether or not observed fertility decline in China is permanent. China's birth rate rose twice in the 1980s and it could certainly rebound once again. A popular backlash to population policy or a relaxing of policy due to international pressure to reduce the level of compulsion in the program are 2 factors which might increase overall fertility and population growth. Fertility is also declining in subSaharan Africa, but not universally. Birth rates are rapidly declining in eastern Europe and the former USSR as economic conditions and outlooks pale. The populations of Estonia, Latvia, Ukraine, and possible Russia are even declining, while only mixed data are available from Yugoslavia. New statistical publications reflect changing borders. Finally, while Slovakia is the only country added to this year's sheet, Eritrea and the Channel Islands will likely be included in next year's.

Key concepts: Sub-replacement fertility, Population momentum, Total fertility rate, Population, Birth rate, Fertility, Population growth, China

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