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A Strategic Assessment of South Asia: Prescription for US Foreign Policy
Tacik, Henryk, Thomas Murphy, Lisi, Stephen S.
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Abstract
The United States views South Asia as an important emerging region containing one fifth of the world's population and the world's largest democracy. South Asia has the potential to become a major economic market in the next 25 years if regional disputes and transnational problems can be effectively managed. This paper addresses key issues affecting the region from the perspectives of the major state actors and prescribes potential U.S. foreign policy choices. Territorial disputes between India and Pakistan have persisted since their independence from British colonialism in 1947. The tensions between these two countries have occupied the majority of U.S. foreign policy in South Asia. Until the collapse of the Soviet Union, U.S. policy toward the region was framed by a Cold War strategy of communist containment. It was focused more on thwarting Soviet communist expansion than on a grand strategy of pursuing long-term U.S. interests in the region. Today, 26 years after the last of three major conflicts, the territorial and ethnic-religious tensions associated with nuclear proliferation remain. However, the post-Cold War climate provides an opportunity for politically constructive dialog to reduce tensions. Although the United States does not have any vital interests challenged by the region, proliferation of WMD and missile technology are threats to regional stability. Territorial disputes over Kashmir and the Siachen Glacier could potentially result in a nuclear disaster. The United States may be a mediator if called upon, but must recognize India as the regional leader and encourage both India and Pakistan to assume responsibility for resolving their conflict. The U.S. Congress has constrained the ability of the President to conduct foreign policy as he might otherwise prefer. Therefore, innovative ways to build confidences, Track II diplomacy, and mediation by the United Nations or China will be key in future diplomatic efforts to stabilize the region.