Carrying Capacity of Cultivated Land in Henan Province

According to the 1998-2008 Henan Statistic Yearbook, Grey Forecasting Model and Time Series Model are used to forecast the carrying capacity of cultivated land in Henan Province. According to the contradiction between limited carrying capacity of cultivated land and the growth of population and food safety, we should strictly implement land use planning, enhance the land protection awareness of farmers, establish effective mechanism of cultivated land protection, promote the land ecumenical and intensive use, actively carry out the land consolidation, strengthen law enforce, and improve the land use efficiency in order to protect the cultivated land. Result shows that natural population growth rate is gradually reduced in Henan Province and the increasing trend is gradually slowed down, but the population pressure is still relatively great due to the immense population base. Total population of Henan Province will break through 100million people in the year 2010. In the years 2010-2025, grain yield per unit area in Henan Province show a steady growth trend, with the average annual growth of 10.27%. Existing cultivated land resources in Henan Province can only meet the needs of daily life at the level of adequate food and clothing. With the growth of population, shortage of cultivated land resources is becoming more and more apparent, which will eventually hinder the economic development and the improvement of people’s living standard in Henan Province.