Personal, Situational, and Organizational Determinants of Navy Enlisted Attrition

This thesis was conducted to identify predictors of first-term Navy enlisted personnel attrition and to determine the relative influence of various individual and organizational factors on attrition. A cohort of non-prior service recruits was tracked over a 34-month period, and the attrition rates of general detail and Navy A school personnel holding a voluntary release option were compared to those of a control group not holding such an option. Whereas the traditional demographic predictors, in isolation, explained only a small percent of the variance in the dependent variable (attrition), a marked improvement in accuracy of attrition prediction was observed following the inclusion of various organizational and situational factors, such as Navy school attended, entering rate, and initial fleet assignment. These variables added significantly to the accuracy of attrition predictions and should aid Navy managers in developing initiatives for countering attrition.