Assessment of national energy-saving policies for transportation

Two strategies for saving energy in urban transportation were tested in three cities for their impact on the environment. The impacts of these strategies were contrasted to those occurring under the extension of policies in place in 1980. Key results included increased indirect energy use by transportation towards the end of this century; lack of impact on critical materials in building new, more fuel-efficient vehicles for urban travel; the dominance of fuel price increases in achieving the substantial energy savings projected by the year 2000; the differential impacts between fast growing and stable metropolitan areas; and the projection that both emissions and energy standards for urban vehicles can be met. Substantial energy savings were projected under all conditions; 40% savings were expected in the year 2000, relative to 1980, even under policies in place in 1980. The assumed rate of fuel price increase, from 3 to 5% per year depending upon the scenario, proved to be crucial in achieving these energy savings. Increased automotive fuel economy alone could not achieve energy savings in the long run. Further savings were achieved under each of the two strategies tested: Individual Travel, which promoted more fuel efficient automobiles than expected under In-Place Policies;more » and Group Travel, which promoted the use of transit systems by improved service and lower fares, and discouraged the use of autos by increased fuel taxes and parking taxes. Greater energy savings were achieved under Group Travel Strategy than under Individual Travel. In general, these energy savings were achieved without great cost to the environment or to specific social groups, even though impacts did vary by group.« less