TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF PRODUCTIVE CONSERVATION IN URBAN TRANSPORTATION--FINAL REPORT

Two strategies for the productive conservation of energy in urban transportation were compared to a reference situation in three typical cities in two plausible socio-economic scenarios; the reference case assumed as extension of transportation policies in place in 1980. Travel patterns, revenues and costs, and vehicle purchases were forecast; the resulting impacts on the physical environment, use of energy and materials, the economy, and health and safety were examined. The Group Travel Strategy, which included substantial additions to transit service, transit fare reductions, and gasoline and parking tax increases, yielded slightly higher energy savings than did the Individual Travel Strategy. The latter strategy raised average new car fuel economy steadily until the year 2000 and changed nothing else relative to the In-Place Policy. By 2000, assuming steady fuel price increases, the projected savings in total energy use under both strategies exceeded the savings projected under the In-Place Policy, where total energy use declined 16 to 34% from 1980 levels. The nature of the energy used for urban transportation changed significantly by 2000. In all situations, indirect energy use rose to about 40% of the total from the 1980 value of 24%. The environmental impacts varied by strategy, with Group Travelmore » Strategy impacts in general more benign.« less