FUTURE DIRECTIONS FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION: A BASIS FOR DECISION

This report is a long range planning study that was prepared to assist the Urban Mass Transportation Administration (UMTA) in its planning to meet the mobility needs of the American population in the coming decades. The authors have identified a number of important societal forces and considered reasonable scenarios based upon those forces, with particular attention to the implications for the mobility of people in the public sector. Based upon considerations of (1) population growth and dispersion, (2) energy costs and availability, (3) technological advances, and (4) economic conditions, the report concludes that urban decentralization is likely to continue through the year 2000. Therefore, UMTA must accept and support to a greater extent than presently innovative uses of the automobile and paratransit modes as the most efficient mode for most urban area trips. At the same time, existing conventional transit systems in dense areas must continue to be supported. But a major opportunity exists for UMTA to support a total efficient transportation system in a low-density environment. This report provides conclusions and recommendations for future UMTA policy decisions as well as a list of references. /UMTA/