Prospects for Nuclear Deterrence in a Changing Europe

Abstract : The present study project consists of two parts. The first concerns the changes in the politico-strategic situation which occurred in recent times in Europe. It tries to explain how the nuclear strategy is closely linked to historic evolution. Since the situation is changed, it is necessary to rethink the role of nuclear weapons. The second part - after a appraisal of the still remarkable Soviet nuclear threat and after examination of recent changes in NATO nuclear strategy - is focused on future prospects for nuclear deterrance in Europe. Among various solutions (from securing both theater and global deterrance only through strategic nuclear deterrance; and basing deterrance in Europe on French and British national nuclear deterrance; to establishing demilitarized areas), the author favors a so-called essential deterrence, which has as its principal elements: (1) rely, in the foreseeable future, on U.S. nuclear weapons in Europe; (2) significantly reduce the amount of nuclear weapons in Europe; (3) use, as theater nuclear weapons, only those systems with longer ranges that can be launched by air or sea platforms; (4) give these theater weapons a political deterrence role instead of a military warfighting role as in the past.