Balance of power and the problem of perception1

The concept of balance of power can have considerable heuristic and explanatory power over the full range of conflict systems. But the concept requires analysis, to clarify both what it means and the conditions under which it can obtain. An empirically faithful analysis of ‘balance of power’ must take account of, among other things, the perceptions the opposing parties have of one another. These perceptions have structural and psychological determinants, and an analysis of their operations in power systems provides a necessary part of the analysis of ‘balance of power’. In terms of the frame of reference employed it is concluded that there is only one situation in which balance might obtain, though not for any length of time.