Investigating consistency in passenger arrivals: insights from longitudinal ticket validations

Waiting for public transport is recognised as being more onerous that travel time itself. Previous research has established that one category of public transport users ‘target’ their arrival at a time shortly before the service is scheduled. Another group of users arrive randomly, seemingly unaffected by timetable schedules. The time of day plus service characteristics, such as headway and reliability, affect the split of users between these groups. Little is known about the longitudinal aspects of the non-random arrival behaviour. This paper assesses the day-to-day consistency of transit users’ arrival behaviour by analysing longitudinal ticket validations data for heavy rail services in Melbourne. It makes further distinctions of the public transport users that have up until now been categorised into random or nonrandom arrival behaviour. Four archetypal arrival behaviours are derived. Consistency of arrival behaviour is quantified and investigated. Heterogeneity is an overriding feature of public transport commuters’ longitudinal behaviour. Users exhibiting a greater amount of consistency were found to arrive closer to the service’s timetabled time, used fewer scheduled services and travelled earlier in the peak. A systematic difference in arrival behaviour was found for users of a terminus station. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E216383.