1 Looking at the Future of China’s Population from the Sixth National Population Census and United Nations Population Projections

The Sixth Population Census shows that China's fertility rate has been below replacement rate for two decades, that population has entered a phase of slow growth, and that aging has increased rapidly. An important change in World Population Prospects (2010 Revision) is major adjustments to the assessment and projections for China's population. The root cause of the major change in assessment of and projection for China's population is a major shift in judgment about China's fertility trend. Although the 2010 Revision overestimates China's current fertility rate and underestimated the rate of aging of China's population, the timely adjustments to the UN population projections have important reference significance for understanding the future development of China's population. The continued existence of the one-child policy is accelerating the aging of the Chinese population, bringing a premature end to China's demographic dividend. Population projections are an important tool for population policy and socio-economic decision-making. Keywords: fertility rate; one-child policy; population policy; Sixth Population Census; UN population projections