Chinese Ballistic Missile Developments

New ballistic missile developments have appeared in China involving the buildup of long-range and theater ballistic missiles, anti-satellite capabilities, and a manned space program. They would appear to be part of an integrated agenda to project power on a global level. Fueled by double-digit increases in its announced defense spending since 1989, China's military modernization program has improved that country's air and naval forces, and has given special attention to its ballistic missile forces. The author shows how these are a challenge to U.S. military dominance. Key Words: China, Taiwan, Ballistic Missiles, ABM, Satellites, warfare in space. China's buildup of ballistic missiles came to prominence in 1995 and 1996 when it launched short-range ballistic missiles toward Taiwan to influence its presidential election. That caused the United States to send two aircraft carrier groups near Taiwan in 1996. Since then, U.S. defense planners have largely ignored China's buildup of ballistic missiles. The buildup has been treated as a matter that affects only Taiwan rather than as imperilling U.S. security interests and its security relationship with Japan. At times, the United States has treated it as merely a matter of China's modernizing its force of about 20 older ICBMs rather than as building new missiles with a new doctrine. Of little concern were China's development of the DF-31 road-mobile ICBM and its variants, including the JL-2 submarine-launched ballistic missile and longer-range DF-31A, and its buildup of intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Nonetheless, China's ballistic missile buildup is notable for both the numbers involved and the accuracy of its missiles. About nine hundred short-range ballistic missiles were fired across Taiwan by early 2007. The missiles are sufficiently accurate to make precision strikes. Of concern to the United States was Chinese doctrine that called for using its ballistic missiles in precision strikes against U.S. forces as part of the Long Wall program, including the use of ballistic missiles against U.S. naval forces. That program was similar to China's planning to use ballistic missiles against Taiwan in precision strikes against its air and naval bases and other facilities. Notwithstanding the public availability of reports that noted all of this, the United States has for some time taken a complacent view, acknowledging their potential threat only recently. In March 2007, a U.S. Naval Intelligence report that was made public revealed that China is conducting sea trials for the first of five new nuclear-powered ballistic missile-carrying submarines, the Type 094 class. Expected to begin operation in 2008, the Type 094 will be equipped with JL-2 ballistic missiles with a range of 8,000 kilometers (5,000 miles).1 The Type 094 is a major advance over China's only other ballistic missile-carrying submarine, the 24-year old nuclear-powered Xia, which has been armed with JL-I ballistic missiles with a range of about 1,770 kilometers (1,000 miles). These can target U.S. military facilities in the Western Pacific from traditional Chinese operating areas.2 Each Type 094 will be equipped with 12 JL-2s. China is acquiring a force of 120 long-range ballistic missiles, 60 JL-2s and about 60 DF-SIs over the next decade at current rates.3 These long-range missiles can be equipped with multiple warheads. Retired Vice Admiral Michael McConnell, the new Director of National Intelligence, noted these nuclear missiles pose a threat to the United States, saying, It's a matter of their building their military, in my view, to reach some state of parity with the United States. So they're a threat today; they would become an increasing threat over time.4 In 2005, Chinese General Zhu Chenghu told reporters China would attack U.S. cities with nuclear weapons in response to conventionally armed U.S. missile strikes against China in a conflict over Taiwan. …