Long Term Motor Fuel Tax Revenue Projections in Georgia

This paper discusses the results of a model built to capture the effect of how demographic, economic, environmental, and technological changes could affect Georgia’s future motor fuel tax revenue. Currently, fuel tax revenue is the major funding source for many transportation agencies; however, in recent years, inflation and fuel economy increases have decreased the revenue generated by fuel taxes. The model was intended to be a tool to allow users to project long-term revenue and observe how adjustments to different pricing and socioeconomic inputs affect future revenue under both Georgia’s current fuel tax structure and alternative revenue mechanisms. The model projects that Georgia’s fuel tax revenue will continue to increase through 2020 but will decline between 2020 and 2030 due mainly to improvements in vehicle technology. To combat these revenue declines, the model also estimates how much revenue would be generated by increasing motor fuel tax rates or adopting alternative funding methodologies such as the vehicle miles of travel fee. These results indicate that Georgia could generate hundreds of millions of annual additional transportation revenue with a minimal impact to household contributions, which illustrates that leaders have options when developing sustainable funding solutions that promote fuel-efficient and livable lifestyles.