Discount Survival Models for No Covariate Case

For the survival data analysis of no covariate the discount survival model is proposed to estimate the time-varying hazard rate and the survival function recursively. In comparison with the covariate case it provide the distributionally explicit evolution of hazard rate between time intervals under the assumption of a conjugate gamma distribution. Also forecasting of the hazard rate in the next time interval is suggested, which leads to the forcecasted survival function.