EFFECTS OF THE TARIFF PLAN FOR PUBLIC TRANSPORT 1984-1987 ON TRAFFIC SAFETY

In January 1983 the Minister of Transport presented his tariff plan for public transport 1984-1987 to the Netherlands Parliament. The Dutch socialist party asked the Institute for Road Safety Research SWOV to study the effects of this plan on traffic safety. The estimation of the consequences are preliminary. Using available data and the applied methods it is concluded that the use of public transport will decrease. Due to the differences in the increase of tariffs the use of the train will decrease by 1%, regional public transport by 5% and urban public transport by 3.5%. A negative effect is that people will use the safer public transport less and in its place will use other transport modes which have a greater likelihood of accidents. Positive effects are the fewer vehicle kilometers travelled by bus, tram and train and therfore the fewer accidents with these transport modes and the decrease of feeder transport. In total additional traffic deaths and about 1500 additional traffic injuries are to be expected if the plan is introduced. (TRRL)