Can public transport, cycling and walking cope with the anticipated growth?

It is widely accepted that the traditional (supply-side) approach to provision for motor vehicle traffic - predict and provide - is no longer tenable. The conventional response is to invest more heavily in public transport, and perhaps walking and cycling. However, most of the increase that has been observed in car travel has not come about at the expense of public transport, walking or cycling, but from 'new' kilometres being generated. Furthermore, the expectation that better public transport might be able to compete with the private car ignores the fact that many of these new trips are now so spread out geographically that public transport would be difficult to operate economically, that travel times using public transport are far higher than those of car (or sometimes cycle or walk) and that certain types of trip are not suitable for transfer to public transport. This paper considers the increase in travel in recent decades and the projected growth. It considers the type of trips being made and their potential for transfer to other modes. It offers some suggestions for a way forward.