Development of Direct Intercity Rail Passenger Demand Models

This paper develops a set of direct intercity rail passenger demand models, appropriate for use by Via Rail, the operators of the rail system in Canada, and by the Canadian Transport Commission, who are responsible for its regulation. The research in the paper is confined to single-mode demand models, utilizing those service measures for the specific mode which has been found to be most important in marketing studies. Because of the nature of the available data only aggregate models are constructed. However, the existence of a time series allows a set of tests that relating to the temporal stability of the models being carried out. The paper is divided into five major sections, each dealing with a particular component. The next section describes the rail travel demand dataset, as well as the supplementary information on rail and competing mode service levels and socioeconomic variables, all of which are necessary for model development. The third section focuses on model specification, modification, and calibration. The results of a number of tests relating to temporal stability, spatial transferability and general model reliability are provided in the fourth section. Finally, conclusions are drawn, along with some general implications for rail passenger service.