PUBLIC TRANSPORT DEFICITS, CONTROLABLE OR NOT? . TRANSPORTATION PLANNING RESEARCH COLLOQUIUM 1990. MEASURING, MODELLING, MONITORING. NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN RESEARCH METHODS. THE HAGUE, NOVEMBER 29-30, 1990. VOLUME I AND II

The decrease in the use made of public transport is a matter of concern for the Dutch government, which has recently decided to encourage the use of public transport, in order to reduce the growth in private car use. The subjects of this paper are the possible effects of different socio economic developments and policy opinions about the modal split and decrease in use of three public transport sectors. The analysis is based on an integration of a traffic forecasting model and a financial public transport model. The outcomes of the analysis are that only a moderate economic growth in combination with a rather large increase of the energy costs for car users and an increasing level of efficiency in the public transport companies might help to achieve the purposes of the governmental policy, as recently formulated. In this regard the success of the policy is for a large part dependent on external influences. In the opinion of the authors a further refinement of an integrated model as used for this analysis can provide a useful policy too. (Author/TRRL)